Background
Previous studies evaluating predictive factors for conversion from laparoscopic to
open cholecystectomy have drawn conflicting conclusions. We evaluated objective preoperative
variables to create an accurate, accessible risk score to predict conversion.
Methods
A retrospective review was performed of laparoscopic cholecystectomy patients at an
urban tertiary care center. Seventy characteristics were subjected to bivariate and
multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify parameters that independently
predict conversion to open cholecystectomy. A model was created based on this analysis.
Results
Laparoscopic cholecystectomy was performed on 1377 patients for benign gallbladder
disease over a 71-month period. There were 112 (8.1%) conversions to open cholecystectomy.
The correlation between the preoperative clinical diagnosis and pathologic diagnosis
for acute and chronic cholecystitis was 48.6% and 94.6%, respectively. Multivariate
analysis identified male gender, elevated white blood cell count, low serum albumin,
ultrasound finding of pericholecystic fluid, diabetes mellitus, and elevated total
bilirubin as independent predictors of conversion. These 6 factors were also associated
with the pathologic diagnosis of acute cholecystitis. A model to calculate the risk
for conversion was created with an area under the receiver operator curve of 0.83.
The risk for conversion also can be estimated based on the number of factors identified
present and ranged from 2% when 1 factor was present to 89% with 6 factors.
Conclusions
These results demonstrate that conversion to open cholecystectomy can be predicted
based on parameters available preoperatively. Conversion is more likely in patients
who have acute cholecystitis; however, the correlation between its clinical and pathologic
diagnosis is poor. Improvements in the ability to determine the risk for conversion
have important implications for surgical care.
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Article info
Publication history
Accepted:
July 26,
2007
Identification
Copyright
© 2007 Mosby, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.